[market changes] the coal sector is highly sought after and the stock market and futures market rise together.

SMM12 March 9: today's coal plate is favored by the market. In the afternoon, in the stock market, the coal mining and processing plate continued to strengthen, with energy and mountain coal rising by the international limit, Liaoning energy up by more than 8%, Hengyuan coal power and so on. In the futures market, the main contract of thermal coal futures hit the daily limit, with a maximum of 727.8 yuan / ton. The main contract of coking coal soared by more than 6%.

According to the news, at the site of the 2021 National Coal Fair and China Taiyuan Coal Trade Conference, coal upstream and downstream enterprises have signed medium-and long-term coal contracts of 740 million tons, and the total amount of contracts signed at the trade fair is expected to exceed 1 billion tons. In terms of policy, 2020 is the final year of coal supply-side reform during the 13th five-year Plan period, and the policy continues to intensify. The 14th five-year Plan further deepens the supply reform, with more emphasis on intensive, efficient and green development goals.

At the same time, coal imports continued to decline. China imported 11.671 million tons of coal in November, down 9.11 million tons or 43.84 percent from 20.781 million tons in the same period last year, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on December 7. Australia is the second largest importer of Chinese coal, but its foreign trade volume has declined recently due to related events.

Affected by the recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other factors, the safety production signal was enhanced at the end of the year, and the coal mining volume was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued a series of environmental protection production restriction notices, resulting in a substantial decline in supply. Most coal mines believe that the short-term supply increment is limited, while demand still supports prices, and prices are easy to rise but difficult to fall. The industry believes that China's economic recovery will further accelerate next year, which will inevitably lead to a new round of demand for coal consumption, and coal supply and demand should be in a tight balance next year.

Institutional point of view

Societe Generale Securities pointed out that last week, coal prices rose steadily, and futures prices rose sharply. On the supply side, the intensity of safety supervision of producing areas is still the same, and the supply is obviously limited; the port inventory is still low; on the demand side, the economic recovery superimposes winter heating to boost coal demand. Towards the end of the year, the major groups began to sign the long Association, and coal prices are expected to remain strong this winter, focusing on the progress of customs declaration of imported coal and the performance repair of this round of coal plate.

Cinda Securities believes that it is currently in the early stages of a new upward cycle of the coal economy. In the medium and long term, the supply side is nearing the end of the release of new production capacity during the 13th five-year Plan period, coal production is strictly required to comply with legal regulations, and the supply is inflexible. Looking forward to the tighter supply and demand situation of coal next year, we will focus on the coal sector.

Open source securities believe that tight supply and demand increases or continues before the Spring Festival, and the supply side pays attention to policy regulation. The tight supply pattern of thermal coal will continue in the short term, and coal prices may remain high under the support of demand growth, and may usher in a pullback after the implementation of import increment and the gradual development of production area protection supply, but the demand support will still maintain a relatively high level within a reasonable range. The rising market for coking coal may continue. On the demand side, the operating rate of coking steel enterprises will remain high. On the supply side, frequent mining accidents affect the release of production, and it is difficult to fully relax Australian coal import restrictions in the short term.